Derby Day 2017 Live

I will be updating this blog throughout the day

So, you might not know that horse racing was my first introduction to gambling.  As a teenager, I used to ride my bike (with friends) over to Belmont Park after school to catch the 7th 8th and 9th races.  Memories of Personal Ensign and Easy Goer still bring a smile to my face.  In the past few years, I have correctly predicted the Kentucky Derby winner but did nothing to profit from it.  This year, I decided to make a day of it and wager via @nyrabets on various races throughout the day. What this usually means is that, because I decided to wager this year, I will lose, but hey, let’s have some fun. Ohhhh yes, a shoutout to @vitoscasino for getting my thoroughbred juices flowing again with his interview about the Kentucky Derby on his podcast this week.

There is a $200 bonus for signing up with NYRA today–here are the terms (which are enticing as I will hit this limit today and then basically have a free $200 to wager):


In my opinion, this is a +EV situation.

Race 1/Race 2 Daily Double:

So, being out of the horse racing wagering game for so long, looking at the Racing Form is bringing back the old juices.  I think am going to ease my way back into the game by placing a Daily Double wager.  The Daily Double wager is a bet where you win by picking the winners of the 1st and 2nd races of the day.

After looking at the races, I have decided to make the following wager:

$10/DD

Race 1: Southside Warrior; Charming Indy
Race 2: Build to Suit

Therefore, if wither Southside Warrior or Charming Indy wins Race 1, I am still alive for  Race 2, where I would need Build to Suit to win.

The Daily Double “probable payouts” are:

Southside Warrior/Build to Suit: $5 per $1 wagered so, total would be $50
Charming Indy/Build to Suit: $10 per $1 wagered so, total would be $100

Wish me luck.

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Ok so Southside Warrior romped home in the 1st by 8 lengths.

Now, moments before Race 2, the 1 horse scratched and then the 7 horse unseated it’s rider and went for a run, resulting in a late scratch of the 7 horse.  Immediately, the Daily Double payout if the 6 (Build to Suit) wins went from an estimated $5 per $1 wagered all the way down to $3 per $1 wagered!!!  So, if Build to Suit wins, I only make  $10 profit but, that’s fine by me – a win is a win is a win.

WOOHOO!

Build to Last won going away and, a nice surprise, the Daily Double paid $3.80 for every $1 wagered – as such, I was paid $38

Today: +18


Ok, so I took a look at Race 7 at Churchill Downs and came up with the following Exacta Box.  An exacta is picking the correct order of the first and second place horses in the race.  “Boxing” it means it those horses can come in either 1st/2nd or 2nd/1st.

That being said, my wager for Race 7 at Churchill Downs is a $10 Exacta Box with the Linda (1) and Roca Rojo (6).  If either one of them wins and the other comes in second, the probably payoffs are:

Linda/Roca Rojo: $19 for every $2 wagered which would result in a $95 payout
Roca Rojo/Linda: $16 for every $2 wagered which would result in an $80 payout

Let’s see what happens, only 9MTP (Minutes to Post)
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Race 4 at Belmont is next on our card and, in looking at the figures and past performances, I believe the French horse, Sea Calisi (7) will win the race.  However, the odds are 3/5 and the saying goes: “If you have the 5, you don’t need the 3” — as such, I am going to wager a couple of long shot exactas in the hopes of catching lightning in a bottle.

So, my wagers are three Exactas:

Sea Calisi/Achnaha which has a probable payout of $53 per $2 wager which would result in a $106 payout
Sea Calisi/Apple Betty which has a probable payout of $7 per $2 wager which would result in a payout of $17.50
Sea Calisi/Voila La Victoire which has a probably payout of $68 per $2 wager which would result in a payout of $170 (this would be very nice)

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10MTP

Wow if there was a wager to pick the 1st and 3rd place horses, I would be kicking ass.  Sea Calisi won and Apple Betty came in third (my other horses finishing way out).

Ok – these near wins feel like getting Double Diamonds on 2 reels then just missing it on the third reel.  Oh well, onward and upward.

Today is -$17


Ok, made a last minute bet on Local Hero (1) in Race 8 at Churchill Downs at 9/2 odds…let’s see how this goes

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Well that ended pretty badly – finished out of the money – probably didn’t like the muddy track.

Today is -$27

(Is it weird that these minor losses are annoying me more than my high limit blackjack losses?)


OK here we are Race 7 at Belmont Park — after watching past performances, I am going with $10 to win on Divine Intervention (10) at 2:1 and $10 to show (come in third place or better) on Air Vice Marshal (4) who is 7:2 (no idea what the “show” price will pay though).

Winning these two bets would put me about even (maybe a smudge up) for the day.

12MTP

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I seem to be one finishing spot off on many of these bets.  The horse I bet to come in first, Divine Interventio came in second.  However, recouped a minimal amount as Air Force Marshal did take third place paying $3.50

Today is -$29.50


So here we go Race 8 at Belmont – this race, to me, is wide open.  Lucky Lotto (7) has faced stiffer competition and run the fastest times so, in a wide open, race, I will go with that “type” of horse.  No strong feeling about it though.

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All this late money came in on the 7 horse to lower the odds down to 7:5 — didn’t matter though since he didn’t win.

Today is now -$39.50

—-

Just made a fun bet called a Pick 4 — have to pick the winners of four races in a row – in this case, Races 9-10-11-12 at Belmont Park

here is the ticket:

Also, Race 9 Belmont I bet a last minute Exacta box of Zabaione and Papa Shot — so , if either of them wins and the other comes in second place, I win (plus, if either of them wins, I am alive in the Pick 4)

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Ok, Papa Shot (8) won the race so I am still alive in he Pick 4 and, as has been customary all day, he horse I needed to come in second came in third.  Oh well – at least I’m still alive in the Pick 4.
———–

Alright a last minute bet $5 to win on Can’thelpbelieving in Race 11 at Churchill Downs — this is a fun bet as the horse is Irish so betting in memory of my grandfather

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Last place.

Today is -54.50

So, at this point, I have wagered a total of $75 at Belmont Park (need to bet at least $100) and $35 at Churchill Downs for a total of $110 bet.  So, at this point, I have $145.50 left of my original $200.  To earn the $200 free play, I need to bet $25 on a Belmont Race and a total of $90.  Say I just bet $90 on the next Belmont Race, I would qualify for the $200 free play and still have $55.50 on deposit (not as bad as I thought I’d do – assuming the worst).

Plus, I am still alive (at this point) in the Pick 4.

That being said, I just put $20 to Win on Connect (4) in Belmont Race 10 (since I have the 4 in the Pick 4 as well).

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WOW! A last minute bet that actually was a winner — Connect(4) tore it up in that race, netting me $10 on the wager as he went off at 1:2.

Today is -44.50 (with a Pick 4 still riding).

So now I need a $5 wager at Belmont and $70 in total to get the $200 free play.

Let’s see…

Alright, Race 11 at Belmont Park I am betting an Exact Box with Farz (1) and Time Test (8) — these are the two horses I have in this race for the Pick 4 so, if either of them win and the other comes in second, I win the exacta and if either of them win, I am alive for the final race of the Pick 4.

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Also added in a Trifecta(have to pick the 1st-2nd-3rd place finishers in order – I chose Time Test/Farz/Jay Gatsby and Time Test/Farz/Smooth Daddy)) bet for the final $1 towards my Belmont Park $100 of action.

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===================

The KENTUCKY DERBY!!!

I decided to go with the Exacta Box I have been thinking about all week:

Lookin at Lee (1)
McCraken (15)
Irish War Cry (17)

This will be a $10 Exacta Box (if any of those three horses finish first or second together, the ticket wins).

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And for my other Kentucky Derby Bet, I am going to bet $10 Win on McCraken

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So, as it now stands, I have covered all the best required by the NYRA promotion to obtain my $200 free play while having the Belmont Park bets and Kentucky Derby bets all still “live”.

Now it’s just time to sit back and cheer the ponies on!!!

Well, I had Lookin at Lee in second place but neither of the other two horses I needed showed up for me — and Lookin at Lee was a long shot – oh well- still alive in the Belmont Park Races plus going to get $200 in free play based upon my wagering today!
Ahhhh the Pick 4 dream just died as the horse I needed to win Race 11 lost by less than a nose in an insane photo finish.

OK – that means, for the day, my net loss was 119.50

However, I will get the $200 free play on Monday and can play around with that.  Thanks for joining me on this first ever “live blog”.

WAIT WAIT WAIT — I just read the fine print and apparently, “show” bets (third place or better) do not count towards the promo – I guess I have to bet $10 on the final race at Belmont Park — WOW! action when I wasn’t even looking for any LOL

This might be a blessing in disguise as, had I not just lost the last race by less than a nose, I would not have double-checked that I had bet enough to receive the free play and missed my chance of betting the final race to obtain my goal.

So, I took the three horses I had designated for the final race of my now defunct Pick $ and turned them into a $2 Exacta Box – therefore, if any two of the three horses come in first or second together, I win:

Huracan (6)
Baseline (11)
Luminary Flight (12)

And, for good measure, through in a final $50 to Win on Baseline (11) at 6:5 odds…it is all +EV at this point with the free play rebate.

Ok just watched the race and that last second bet of $50 to win on the 11 horse killed me – I won the exacta box as the 12 horse won and the 11 came in second but doesn’t deny the $50 win I put down on the 11 — I should have jsut left well enough alone lol

Ok let’s tally up the final total here:

Net loss of the day:  -131.30

BUT, will receive free bets in the amount of $200 on Monday or Tuesday

It was a fun day and, in reality, I lost less than a double down on a black chip table minim bet. 

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